Saturday, 20 September 2014

West Ham v Liverpool: There'll be goals, but don't bank on an away win for the Reds

Raheem Sterling has grown into a hugely important player for Liverpool
West Ham v Liverpool
Saturday September 20, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports 1
West Ham
It's been a mixed start to the season for the Hammers, who sit midtable at this early stage, in 13th place and with four points from four games.
A good performance against Crystal Palace is probably the flagship result of the east Londoners' season so far, and they look to be trying a slightly more attractive, attacking style than the one-dimensional stuff that has been the main weapon used by manager Sam Allardyce's fiercest critics. However, they've been sloppy at times and still need work to iron out the mistakes that have punctuated their play so far this term.
But, the man they call Big Sam looks to have strengthened his side nicely during the summer - new signings Mauro Zarate and Cheikhou Kouyaté have really hit the ground running and Alex Song will improve them further when he regains full fitness. West Ham are a decent proposition this season, and while Liverpool are a team that deserve respect, West Ham should be confident in getting a positive result against them at home.
Liverpool
Liverpool have been the model of inconsistency so far this season; their two wins have been separated by two defeats, one of which was a really disappointing performance at home to surprise-package-so-far Aston Villa.
The Reds' main problem so far appears to be the usual story - silly mistakes at the back through a lack of concentration undermining their at-times excellent forward play. Brendan Rodgers knows his men are at their best when playing with a quick tempo and attacking at pace, and it was clear against Aston Villa that the resting of Raheem Sterling was a mistake; the nippy winger-cum-forward is absolutely key to their ambitions.
In team news, Daniel Sturridge, Joe Allen, Emre Can and Glen Johnson will all miss out for the Reds through injury.
The market has Liverpool as odds-on favourites to take the win here, at 1.83. This isn't a huge surprise; the Anfield side are a better team on paper, and Liverpool tend to trade far too short on the Exchange regularly. It's quite difficult to find value on them, unless they're playing another 'big' side.
West Ham are a decent-looking 4.8, but the Hammers have lost both their home games so far this season and you probably wouldn't pick a game against Liverpool for them to get off the mark.
I firmly believe that Rodgers' team are too short, but I can't side with the Hammers with any real confidence. For that reason, I'll go for a lay of the visitors at an odds-on price. That way, I'll have The Draw (3.95) on side.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Liverpool score goals. We all know that. However, they aren't anywhere near as exciting or free-scoring when they don't move the ball quickly, and for that reason they drew a blank against Villa at home. What's more, West Ham have a good track-record of digging in under Allardyce. 
This is quite a hard market to call until we see the teams kick off and work out what sort of pace the away side are going to play at. That said, West Ham have scored in every game since the first day of the season and I'm fairly confident both teams will score, so Over 2.5 Goals at anything around 1.8 is probably the call.
Under 2.5 Goals will trade at around 2.24.
This market appeals to me for the following reasons: Liverpool have only failed to score in a league game twice since November 2013, and one of those was last week. It's hard to see them drawing a blank twice in a fortnight.
In addition to that, they find it very hard to keep clean sheets and have singularly failed to eradicate the mistakes from their rearguard so far under Brendan Rodgers, andWest Ham have shown they're capable of scoring goals. 
This means Yes has to be the call in the Both Teams to Score market at around 1.76 or better.

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